Use of a Simple GIS-Based Model in Mapping the Atmospheric Concentration of γ-HCH in Europe

The state-of-the-art of atmospheric contaminant transport modeling provides accurate estimation of chemical concentrations. However, existing complex models, sophisticated in terms of process description and potentially highly accurate, may entail expensive setups and require very detailed input data. In contexts where detailed predictions are not needed (e.g., for regulatory risk assessment or life cycle impact assessment of chemicals), simple models allowing quick evaluation of contaminants may be preferable. The goal of this paper is to illustrate and critically discuss the use of a simple equation proposed by Pistocchi and Galmarini (2010), which can be implemented through basic GIS functions, to predict atmospheric concentrations of lindane (γ-HCH) in Europe from both local and remote sources. Concentrations were computed for 1995 and 2005 assuming different modes of use of lindane and consequently different spatial patterns of emissions. Results were compared with those from the well-established MSCE-POP model (2005) developed within EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), and with available monitoring data, showing acceptable correspondence in terms of the orders of magnitude and spatial distribution of concentrations, especially when the background effect of emissions from extracontinental sources, estimated using the same equation, is added to European emissions.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

An Assessment of Three Priority Hazardous Substances at the European Scale

In this report we present a survey of existing information for the assessment of loads of hazardous substances to the European coastal waters. Based on the information available, we select three example substances (PFOS, trifluralin and lindane) for which we perform an assessment of the baseline conditions and (limited) retrospective analysis using direct and inverse modeling. We also suggest criteria and methods to assess future scenarios of chemical loads in response to legislative provisions and accounting for the physico-chemical properties of the substances, based on the use of lumped models but accounting for the spatial variability of environmental processes and emissions.JRC.DDG.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

Using Decision Tree Analysis and GIS in Modelling (semi)VOC Emissions at the European Scale

Risk assessment of semi Volatile Organic Compounds (semi-VOCs) is a fundamental part in the regulation of production and use in industries and households. Emission inventories are a natural starting point in risk assessments and, given the complex use and emission patterns of the many thousands VOCs, emission estimates are often one of the most uncertain and problematic parts in risk assessments. Some critical issues are quantifying production and use amounts of chemicals and chemical containing products, assigning amounts to industrial activities and household products, identifying use and emission patterns, identifying receiving environmental compartment and quantifying the emission to these, which depend on production volumes, chemical properties, and their mode of use, in a non-trivial way. To ensure reliable risk assessments, emission estimates are sought which need to be realistic and, at the same time, do not require excessive effort in the modeling of emission inventories. The report proposes a method to capitalize on the information in the European Chemicals Bureau risk assessment reports (RARs), available for a limited number of chemicals, to train decision trees that allow estimating emissions of chemicals to different environmental compartments. The report also illustrates how these estimates can be used in conjunction with geographic information system (GIS) processing of spatial data to map emissions. Examples are drawn with reference to the case of the European Union. It is shown how quick, spatially distributed estimates of emissions to specific environmental compartments can be obtained to be used in screening level assessment. The method outlined in the report allows a quick and reliable estimation of the fraction of total chemical production that results in emission to a specific environmental medium, using data mining techniques and GIS. This can result helpful within the new procedures for risk assessments guided by REACH, as a way to exploit data from existing risk assessments for predicting and mapping emissions of chemicals that have not yet been assessed.JRC.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

Global Atlas of Environmental Parameters for Chemical Fate and Transport Assessment

The report describes datasets forming an atlas of global landscape and climate parameters which were collected, homogenized and processed in order to provide input to a global model of chemical fate. The datasets can be used to parameterize the main land and ocean compartments usually considered in fate and transport models, and provide meaningful geographic patterns of the drivers of the environmental fate of contaminants. The maps were specifically designed to be used for a multimedia assessment of pollutant pathways in the environment (MAPPE Global), described in a companion report. The data can be downloaded from the JRC FATE Web sites http://fate.jrc.ec.europa.eu/JRC.DDG.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

Multimedia Assessment of Pollutant Pathways in the Environment, European Scale Model (MAPPE-EUROPE)

The report documents the structure, functions and algorithms used for the modeling of pollutant pathways in air, soil sediments and surface and sea water at the European continental scale. The algorithms are implemented in an extension for ESRI ArcGIS 9.2 a popular geographic information system (GIS) software widely used within the European Commission and in the research, environmental assessment, planning communities. The software is called MAPPE after Multimedia Assessment of Pollutant Pathways in Environment of Europe; the acronym is also the Italian word to denote maps. The purpose of the software is to provide a user-friendly way to convey the wealth of geographic data available to model the fluxes and concentrations of chemical pollutants emitted by industrial activities and other point emissions, and widespread use within households, urban environments or agriculture. The intended use is for organic contaminants such as pesticides, pharmaceuticals, VOCs, and other industrial chemicals. The output of the model, i.e. maps of concentration and chemical fluxes, can be used for the screening of hot spots at continental scale, the assessment of risk for human health and ecosystems, the evaluation of policies and scenarios with reference to the ¿big picture¿ of the continental scale. However this does not avoid the need to use more detailed, site specific assessment procedures for single problems, but provides a tool for decision support in contexts such as the management of priority substances of concern for soil, water and air quality, the control of effects of environmental pollution on human health and ecosystems, and the sustainable management of agro-chemicals, etc. by making available a geographic representation available of the consequences of emissions to air, soil and water compartments.JRC.DDG.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

Spatially explicit multimedia fate models for pollutants in Europe: State of the art and perspectives

A review by Hollander et al. (in preparation), discusses the relative potentials, advantages and shortcomings of spatial and non spatial models of chemical fate, highlighting that spatially explicit models may be needed for specific purposes. The present paper reviews the state of the art in spatially explicit chemical fate and transport modeling in Europe. We summarize the three main approaches currently adopted in spatially explicit modeling, namely (1) multiple box models, (2) numerical solutions of simultaneous advection–dispersion equations (ADE) in air, soil and water, and (3) the development of meta-models. As all three approaches experience limitations, we describe in further detail geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling as an alternative approach allowing a simple, yet spatially explicit description of chemical fate. We review the input data needed, and the options available for their retrieval at the European scale. We also discuss the importance of, and limitations in model evaluation. We observe that the high uncertainty in chemical emissions and physico-chemical behavior in the environment make realistic simulations difficult to obtain. Therefore we envisage a shift in model use from process simulation to hypothesis testing, in which explaining the discrepancies between observed and computed chemical concentrations in the environment takes importance over prediction per se. This shift may take advantage of using simple models in GIS with residual uses of complex models for detailed studies. It also calls for tighter joint interpretation of models and spatially distributed monitoring datasets, and more refined spatial representation of environmental drivers such as landscape and climate variables, and better emission estimates. In summary, we conclude that the problem is not “how to compute” (i.e. emphasis on numerical methods, spatial/temporal discretization, quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis…) but “what to compute” (i.e. emphasis on spatial distribution of emissions, and the depiction of appropriate spatial patterns of environmental drivers)

Scenario analysis of pollutants loads to European regional seas for the year 2020. Part II: Assessment of priority chemicals – an example with three pilot substances

In order to support the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, DG Environment and the Joint Research Centre joined to carry out a study on the expected cumulative impact of existing EU environmental legislation on the quality of the marine environment, with specific reference to the case of aquatic discharges to the European seas. The report describes a few scenario analyses affecting emissions to the European regional seas up to 2020 for Lindane, Trifluralin and Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) taken as pilot substances. The scenarios developed are agreed with stakeholders at DG ENV following some preparatory meetings. The scenarios do not intend be exhaustive, but examples of what can be further achieved making use of the modelling and database development made in the different phases of the project. For Lindane, the model estimated European sea load of 745 tons per 1995, based on the official emission data provided by EMEP, appears to be reduced by 98.3% in 2005, ten years after the start of the EU regulations for γ-HCH. Besides, under the BAU scenario, a Lindane sea load of ca.12.5 tons per year should be expected. The trend and ban scenarios support, respectively, a reduction of the load to the European seas in 2020 by 74% and 95% when compared to the BAU estimate. Aimed at Trifluralin, according to the BAU scenario, an annual load of ca.61.7 tones is estimated in 2020. However, this is an overestimation, because the aggregated emission data of EUROSTAT for the agriculture use of the entire group of dinitroaniline herbicides in for EU25 have been considered as model input data. The complete ban scenario forecasts ca. 0.07 t/y and in practice eliminates the concern about loads of Trifluralin to European seas to a negligible level in a time-frame of one year due to degradation in soil. Considering PFOS under BAU scenario conditions the total sea load from all European contries is estimated to be 5.8 tons per year. The model forecasts approximately a half of this amount when a 50% reduction of emissions takes place.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

Assessment of Persistent Organic Pollutants load to marine environment by MAPPE-Global model focusing on European regional seas

MAPPE-Global modeling tool belongs to the group of the global box models for environmental fate and transport of POPs. The estimated error level of MAPPE-Global is about a factor of two, which suggests that the model could be considered as a tool for a screening or initial evaluation of chemical risk for POPs at global scale. The verified MAPPE-Global is applied in practical assessments of chemical loads to the European regional seas. The PCBs case study relates to a sum of 22 congeners and considers two emission scenarios: first - the current status relative to the 2010 year; second – a future projection corresponding to the 2020 year. The total amount of 22PCBs released to air equals to 101.03 t for year 2010 and to 50.2 t for year 2020, respectively. The Baseline scenario for Lindane assumes, for the reference year 2005, 86.6 t atmospheric emissions only from European sources and omits the impact of the long range atmospheric transport. The second scenario for Lindane aims to targeting the situation in the year 2020. This scenario (denoted as LRT) suggests no emissions to atmosphere from any European origin due to the banning of this substance but admits that Europe is affected by an unavoidable „import” of 5.4 t Lindane through trans-continental air transport. According to the MAPPE-Global model, the extended European area is exporting to the marine water 3.7 t of 22PCBs in 2010 and 1.9 t in 2020, respectively. In both scenarios, the most affected seas are the Mediterranean Sea (ca.35% from the total) followed by Northern (ca. 21.5%) and Black sea (ca. 19%). It was estimated that the European seas receive by atmospheric deposition about 7.9 t of 22PCBs in 2010 and ca. 4t in 2020. This is two times more when comparing to the entire riverine discharge of 22PCBs for these years. MAPPE-Global forecasts 10.1 t riverine sea load of Lindane under the Baseline scenario and 0.26t in the case of LRT meaning 97% reduction compared to the baseline option. The highest discharges are observed for Atlantic Ocean – in Baseline scenario 2.2t (21.8% from the total) and for LRT 0.06t (23%); and Mediterranean Sea - Baseline 3.5t (34.7%) and LRT 0.04t (15.4%). For the gamma-HCH, likewise for the PCBs, it is found that the atmospheric deposition over the European seas dominate the river input to the coastal zone. Under the Baseline scenario, the total air deposition (50.2t/y) is about 5 times higher than the riverine component of the sea load. Potentially the outcome of MAPPE-Global model could serve in the assessments of different policy options related to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) or Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) as well as to support the implementation of the European sea conventions as HELCOM (Baltic Sea), OSPAR (North-East Atlantic), MEDPOL (Mediterranean Sea) and BSC (Black Sea).JRC.H.1-Water Resource

Multimedia assessment of pollutant pathways in the environment: a Global scale model

The report describes the assumptions, equations and a few examples of preliminary applications of a global spatial steady-state box model entitled Multimedia Assessment of Pollutant Pathways in the Environment (MAPPE-Global). The model grounds on the concept of already developed European version of MAPPE chemical fate model. MAPPE-Global computes the removal rates of a substance with given physical-chemical properties in an evaluative environment for the Globe with a resolution of 1x1 degree considering atmosphere, land (natural and agriculture soils, forests, impervious surfaces, frozen territories), surface water (including lakes, inland wetlands and reservoirs) and oceans and seas. MAPPE-Global is able to consider chemical emissions in one or more of the environmental compartments and estimates chemical concentrations and fluxes accounting chemical partitioning (gas, liquid or solid), degradation, advective and diffusive transport. At this stage, MAPPE Global does not explicitly compute chemical transport in space, but only the fate of a substance at each location in space. However, the model estimates for each grid cell the mass fluxes of chemical that are available for transport inside or outside of the cell, in addition to concentrations from local emissions. Thus, MAPPE Global is developed specifically to respond questions as: • How will a chemical spread across different media in the different climatic and landscape settings? • How important is the variability of environmental processes in determining the fate of chemicals across the globe? In addition, the model enables estimating, for virtually any location in the world, representative parameters of the environmental removal rates that determine the fate of a contaminant. These rates may be used to feed a zero-dimensional time-dependent model that allows computing the main receptors of the chemical emissions. Besides, in order to evaluate the performance of the MAPPE-Global model a comparison with established models, such as Impact World and USEtox was made by crosschecking of the intermedia removal rate coefficients. Finally, MAPPE-Global was used to quantify for a set of 34 representative pollutants at global scale the range of variability of chemical removal rates for the different environmental compartments and to identify the fate patterns of flyers, swimmers, soil-bound and multimedia chemical substances.JRC.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

Hydro-economic assessment of the potential of PV-RO desalinated seawater supply in the Mediterranean region: Modelling concept and analysis of water transport costs

Seawater desalination, although a traditional source of water in arid and water-scarce regions, is receiving attention worldwide due to the growing concern on dwindling traditional water resources. Desalination entails significant energy consumption, which may be unsustainable when the latter is provided by fossil fuels. However, when fed with energy from renewable sources, desalination may become more attractive. Until now, desalination has been regarded as a local source of freshwater for coastal areas or islands, but the mapping of regions suitable to be supplied with desalinated seawater has been seldom addressed systematically. Caldera et al., 2016, present a global scale analysis based on a simplified representation of water demand and energy requirements for desalinated water production and transport, suggesting that desalinated seawater could be supplied in water-stressed regions of the world by 2030, using renewable energy only, at a cost between 0.59 and 2.81 Euro/m3. While their analysis provides general indications at global scale, the specificity of regions arising from topography, the distribution of population and land use may warrant a more detailed inspection. Appraising the potential of renewable energy seawater desalination as a water resource requires quantifying its costs of production (construction, operation and maintenance of desalination plants), as well as the costs of transporting desalinated water from the coastal production sites to potential users inland. In this contribution, we describe the cost elements concurring to the total cost of desalinated seawater, and we quantify the component of costs associated to water transport from a coastal production site to the final users inland. We limit our analysis to the case of using renewable energy, and specifically photovoltaic (PV) energy, to feed plants based on reverse osmosis (RO) technology, currently representing the most common choice by desalination engineers. We develop our cost analysis assuming PV to contribute 100% of energy used in both production and transport of desalinated water. Finally, we outline the envisaged steps towards a prioritization of investments in desalination in the Mediterranean.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource